Tuberville, Briles, and others

As you all know, Briles pulled the trigger. Don’t expect a lot to change for Baylor. Briles will make them better, but they just don’t get the talent to compete in the Big 12. Briles won’t change that. He’ll upgrade the talent some because of his ties to high school coaches, but they just won’t get the talent upgrade across the board to really compete.

Hold off on the Tuberville – the deal isn’t done. What I’m hearing right now is that it’s looking likely, but it isn’t done. Auburn really shot themselves in the foot when they secretly met with Petrino. Since then, Tuberville has not felt any loyalty at all to Auburn. I can tell you Tuberville was very disappointed that the A&M job didn’t work out. There were a variety of reasons, and part of the reason he’s so likely to sign up with Arkansas is how that deal went down. He doesn’t feel like Auburn necessarily wants him (and he’s right), and if they can get the coach they really want they’ll let him go. If they can’t, then they keep him around. His attitude is “if you don’t want me, let me go.”

I reported earlier that Sumlin was very likely to A&M as the OC. The word now is that may have been a little premature by some in OK. He’ll be a top candidate, but he won’t be handed the job. Seems as though Sherman is going to take a little more time with his hires than was taken with his own hiring.

Still hearing that Dorrell will be gone from UCLA.  Probably doesn’t matter what happens vs. USC.  Also still expect Leach to be a top choice. Should Leach leave, that would put Texas Tech in a bit of a quandry. They really felt like they would be able to go right out and have Briles hired the same day Leach left. However, once Baylor zeroed in on Briles, Briles couldn’t wait around hoping that the Tech job would come open.  So if Leach goes to UCLA, it will make things very interesting.

Recruiting could also be an issue, because you can bet no one that Tech hires will come in and run an offense like that, so it will be difficult to convince recruits of any continuity. In fact, you can bet Briles would take full advantage of that situation to try to pick off some Tech recruits.

What’s next?

The season of coaching changes will be ending pretty soon. What subject matter would you guys want me to post about next? I want to keep writing, and don’t mind putting my sources to good use, but I want to make sure the topics are things people want to read about. So leave some comments and make some suggestions about where to go next.

The carousel continues

So Nutt resigns (I had several comments that said I was wrong, and that Nutt had saved his job by beating LSU).  Almost immediately he’s in at Ole Miss.

Word is Briles isn’t close to a done deal at Baylor. In fact, at this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if Briles isn’t the next coach at Baylor. It might turn out the other way, but there are some real issues to work out between the two sides. One issue – Baylor is continuing to get called out regarding their lack of commitment to a top-flight football program. It cost them Singletary. We’ll see what happens next. It could truly go either way.

Where are you guys getting the “Bob Davie on Sherman’s staff” info? It isn’t true. Bob Davie will not be the defensive coordinator under Sherman.

Who will be? I think Sherman knows, but that information is tough to come by right now. I’ll keep checking.

Look for Kevin Sumlin, passing game coordinator at OU,  to be named to be named the OC under Sherman.  Not saying it’s a done deal, but some sources in Norman are expecting and preparing for that.

You’ve no doubt read that Tuberville isn’t the guy. Jives with what I was hearing and posted. Once the Auburn-Alabama game ended, it was pretty quickly determined that there would be no deal for Tuberville.
Sources in the Texans organization are convinced Mike Sherman is the man.

I never did hear anything around Chris Peterson’s name, or believe that RichRod was a true candidate. The only surprise to me was that it sounds like no push was made for Tedford.

I also tried to save some of you some heartache by telling you right away that I had strong sources telling me that Spurrier wasn’t the guy. Some of you chose to believe these sensationalized stories that just were never true.

Really, after talking to everyone, it had to come down to either a quick deal for Tuberville, or getting Sherman.

Readers, what are your thoughts on Sherman?

Saturday news

Is Nutt still gone? I’m hearing yes. The decision was essentially made already, and it won’t change because of the big win vs. LSU.

Now that Fran is officially gone, who’s next at A&M?  I’ve been saying for awhile that I don’t see Tuberville being the man. Things could change after the Alabama game, but it still sounds like a tough financial deal to work out.  I’ve been saying all along that Tuberville wants the A&M job. The only way this works out is if Auburn believes they’re getting Petrino. The problem is it sounds like it’s not moving fast enough for the Texas A&M AD.

Some of you probably noticed my little hints in a few posts about Mike Sherman. I referenced Guy Morris contacting the Texans because he believed they would have some openings on the offensive side of the ball.

Here’s my prediction – after the Auburn Alabama game there will be some fast and furious meetings/phone calls. If a deal can be struck quickly regarding the buyout, Tuberville will be announced as Texas A&M’s new coach next week. There has already been specific talk of Tuberville’s deal at A&M if he takes the job, so the only thing to be worked out is the buyout. If it looks like that won’t happen, or things are not moving quickly enough for Bill Byrne’s taste, then look for Mike Sherman to get the job.

Mark it down. If I’m wrong, you can all come back and let me know that I’m worthless.

Butch Davis out

Butch Davis’ raise and extension came as a mild surprise. Not so much because he’s staying. I had posted last week that Davis really didn’t feel good about leaving UNC after 1 season. It’s more of a surprise because it happened so early. Sounds like he felt UNC was being fair with him, and he decided not to take them on the carousel ride.
Let’s discuss next week where Arkansas. I’ll be interested to find out whether they consider keeping Nutt another year if they feel like they can’t get someone they want.

Miles and Michigan

I posted a few days ago that I’d heard that Miles was really interested in the Michigan job.  That surprised me, and honestly I wasn’t sure I believed it, because I think he’s in a really good situation in Baton Rouge.  But my source in New Orleans was pretty emphatic about it.  And I have since heard from two others that confirm the essentials of what I was told initially.  It looks like Miles to Michigan may have legs.

Quick Hitter

Hey, look who was right? You may recall me posting this paragraph:

     “Who will Baylor hire? A lot of Baylor folks think Mike Singletary has already been chosen. My sources say that’s not the case, and there is hesitation on both sides. In the end it may work out, but it’s not done yet. The concern is the fact that Singletary has never coached in college. He’s never had to recruit. He’s never been a coordinator. Remember the last time Baylor hired a coach who had only been a position coach? Singletary’s concern is that Baylor has not shown the level of commitment necessary to compete in the Big 12. No coach is eager to go somewhere if they don’t believe the school is going to do everything possible to win.”

So today in the Dallas Morning News there was the story about Singletary no longer being a candidate, and it said this:

In Monday’s meeting and again Wednesday, the two talked more about what kind of philosophical approach its going to take to make Baylor a winning team again, Singletary said.

“We never really talked about money,” Singletary said.

“I told Ian that I know what a national championship looks like. I was telling Ian and Todd — and I think I said exactly this — unless you’re talking about doing what it takes to win a national championship, you’re talking to the wrong person.”

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/112307dnsposingletary.2a4b23ba.html

Just as I said, Singletary had concerns about Baylor’s committment to a championship football team. My source nailed this one.  Therein lies Baylor’s problem. It isn’t really committed to winning big. They really would be satisfied with 6-7 wins/year, and a lower-tier bowl. If they had a coach come in and produce those results, he could coach there for as long as he wanted to.

Checked out in California and Lubbock again. I’m beginning to feel very confident in Leach being the new head man in LA next year. Sounds like UCLA will put up the $, as they now realize they can’t get by on the cheap – like they tried with Dorrell. If he leaves, expect it to take only a few days for Art Briles to be named the head coach in Lubbock. The Tech AD, Gerald Myers, has already made informal contact through intermediaries with Briles so he knows where he stands if Leach leaves.

The Houson Nutt chatter is really going back and forth. I still say he’s gone, and Arkansas will make a big push for Butch Davis. Right now Arkansas is hoping A&M decides on Tuberville, because they don’t want a bidding war.  The feeling I get is that A&M is looking in another direction now anyway.

Still quiet on the Tuberville front. If this deal is being made, a lot of folks sure are quiet. If Tuberville decides he really, really wants out (and we know he wants the A&M job), I would expect him to go to the AD and tell him he wants out and try to persuade him that it’s in everyone’s best interest to negotiate his buyout to a manageable number.

Tuberville?

A lot of questions from you guys about Tuberville. Seems you’ve heard from your various pay sites that he’s the guy.

Honestly, I can’t confirm. If you’re hearing it from those with A&M sources, go with them. I’m not really getting a lot from the Auburn side.

I had Tuberville on my list, and one of my first posts said that Tuberville wanted the job, and had said that to people even prior to the job becoming available (or looking like it was going to). But the money issue just seemed to be a gap too far to bridge.

Have they settled it? I’m not hearing it right now. But sometimes the silence can let you know something is afoot. I’ll check back with the Auburn side. It’ll be interesting what happens. I really got the idea that it would be after the Alabama game before any negotiating could be done regarding Tuberville’s buyout.

If they are negotiating now, then I would expect they’ve gotten word from Petrino that he’ll be there next year.

If it’s going to be Tuberville, I would expect it took a lot of folks by surprise. I’m surprised.

The list

“Stop telling us who it won’t be.” I’ll take the hit on that. It’s typically much easier to rule people out than say they’re a viable candidate. When you make calls people are generally more willing to talk and say a certain coach isn’t interested, or will be back at their current school next year.  People who are legitimately interested usually stay a little more tight-lipped.  So here is my list. These name generally come from talking to sources on the coaches’ end, not A&M’s end.  Instead of going through the front door and getting info from A&M, I’m kind of having to go through the back door and talk to coaches/sources to see if A&M is showing some interest.  These are not in any particular order:

1. Tommy Tuberville – I’ve basically ruled him out in prior posts, but I have to leave him on the list simply because of the interest he has in the job and the interest A&M has in him. I ruled him out because of financial considerations. If his buyout was $500K, and A&M would only have to pay $2.5 to 2.7, I’d put all my money on him. But that’s simply not the case, and the numbers are so far off, it’s hard to imagine them ever coming together.

2. Mike Sherman – Some already think this is done. I told you earlier that Guy Morriss (prior to his official dismissal report) had initiated contact with the Texans because he believes Sherman will go to A&M and that will create some openings on the offensive side of the ball.  Word is Sherman wants the job pretty badly. From talking to some folks, it’s isn’t coming across that A&M wants him as badly as he wants them.
3. Jeff Tedford – I think there’s going to be a strong push for Tedford. Despite some struggles this season, have you really looked at what Tedford has done? That Cal team won a total of 12 games the 5 seasons prior to Tedford. In ‘99 and 2001 the won 0 and 1 game, respectively. They hadn’t had a winning season since ‘93, andin the 8 seasons in between they won a total of 25 games, or about 4/year.  Comparable to Baylor? Absolutely. Maybe worse, because you could go back much further and outside a couple of decent seasons, you’d have to get back to the late 40’s/early 50’s Pappy Waldorf era to see any sustained success.  Just bad.  So despite some struggles this year, you snap this guy up immediately if you can.

4. Rich Rodriguez – I’ll put him on the list for some of you, but he’ll be the coach at WVU next year.

5. Butch Davis – Along with Tedford, sounds like he’ll be the other “big name” A&M might push for. You can review my earlier post “The Butch Davis Wars,” for more information. If the situation is right, A&M could land him. Still, he has concerns about leaving UNC so quickly.

6. Charlie Strong – an interesting choice, but probably one that’s down the list a little ways.

7. Art Briles – no real interest on A&M’s end. Will be a top candidate for Texas Tech if Mike Leach leaves.

8. Brian Kelly – it doesn’t sound like the interest in him has really ramped up. However, if some top guys fall through, I think Kelly is one of the first to take over the top candidate position.

Some surprise names that you might hear, but won’t likely get the job:

Frank Solich – has used his prior relationship with Byrne to express interest. I get the feeling Bill Byrne isn’t interested in hiring a coach who a Big 12 team has fired, whether Byrne thinks it was justified or not. Although, I do think Byrne would enjoy beating Nebraska with Solich as A&M’s coach.

Craig Bohl – you always have to be aware of Bill Byrne’s prior connections when he’s making a hire, though I think sometimes too much is made of that. But Bohl has put together some nice squads at NDSU. Still, I think Byrne realizes that if you’re going to hire someone with no Texas ties at all, it needs to be someone who can initially recruit off their name alone (like Tedford).