Surprises

I’m a little surprised at Kevin Sumlin taking the UH job, to be honest.  To begin with, he’d been “eliminated” as a candidate as recently as yesterday in the major media.  Even so, I had some difficulty believing that he was taking a backseat to Jack Pardee. 

 No disrespect intended to Pardee.  He’s something of a legend at UH.  And I find it a little distasteful that UH seems to have used him as something of a negotiating smokescreen.  At least that’s what I always had the feeling he was.  As Steve Campbell of the Houston Chronicle put it – “Ever see one of those screwball comedies or adventure movies where the main characters are hatching some elaborate, off-the-wall scheme? And one of them will look up and say, ‘This is so crazy, it just might work.’” 

Jack Pardee is 71.  His last coaching job was in 1995 with the Birmingham Barracudas of the Canadian Football League. The UH athletic director, Dave Maggard, has a statement on the UH website saying that he is “on a quest to return our athletics program to national prominence.”  Return?  With Jack Pardee?  Really?  

Meanwhile, Sumlin had a pretty “hot” name among coordinators.  I would expect that, if not this year, then he would’ve had bigger opportunities next year.  I also think it might be a mistake to follow behind a coach who has already “elevated” a program.  Sumlin is taking over a traditionally weak school that has, recently, had something of a taste of success.  Dangerous combination in my opinion.

But the bigger surprise is Bobby Petrino to Arkansas.  Yes, he’s had a full plate with the Falcons.  But he hadn’t even coached a full season!  Not only that, he proclaimed his loyalty to the franchise hours before he quit (and many a cold shivers went up spines in Baton Rouge).  At least he found time to write notes to the players on his way out the door. 

Well, don’t look now, Bobby, but this may be a situation of out of the frying pan and into the fire.  Things were miserable in Atlanta, no doubt.  But, you had some legitimate reasons for that – reasons that everybody was well aware of.  Meanwhile, in Fayetteville, the expectations are already ranging from the absurd to the insane.  There’s already talk of an SEC title next year.  Really?  From Tom Dienhart at the Sporting News:

“Wild expectation: Arkansas can win the SEC!

Sober reality: It has never happened.

Delusional expectation: Arkansas can win the national championship!

Cold-hard reality: It hasn’t happened since 1964.”

Arkansas isn’t a very big, or densely-populated, state.  In other words, the natural recruiting base for UA is a little thin.  And you’re surrounded by predators in the form of LSU, OU, Texas, Texas A&M, and a resurgent Missouri.  All that isn’t to say that Petrino can’t be successful at Arkansas.  He is a good coach.  But everybody wearing one of those razorback hats might want to tap the brakes just a little bit.  A year ago, Vince Young was a steal and Mario Williams was a laughable No. 1 pick.   

In short, I’m not sure of the wisdom (on the coach’s part) of either of these two hires.  They both seem like they’re stepping into situations with great potential to disappoint their respective fan bases.  And both of them underscore the unpredictability and, quite frankly, ruthlessness of the current college hiring process.

Today’s interesting news item

Most of you saw that Miles has been contacted by Michigan again.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3150159

We talked about this awhile back. This situation has been very fluid. Miles was really up in the air on this thing. Then LSU put him in a tough spot. But like I mentioned, what he said in his press conference is that he is the coach at LSU, and will be the coach at LSU. He didn’t specify if that was for the next game, or through the end of the season, or next season.

What’s interesting is I’m hearing that LSU’s powerplay in making Miles do the press conference has backfired somewhat. It has upset him that, even though he hadn’t made a decision, he was forced into having that press conference. He knew they were trying to back him into a corner. It has strained the relationship between Miles the LSU AD. Initially, I wouldn’t have been surprised at all if Miles had decided to stay at LSU. Now, I would be surprised if he did. He contacted Michigan to let them know that he was still interested. That was mainly due to the deterioration of the relationship. LSU may have screwed themselves (assuming you view losing Miles as something bad).

Skip Bertman, LSU’s AD, is still playing the game, though. “He signed the contract on Thursday. So even if he did [talk to Michigan] I would think it wouldn’t matter. Because Les wants to be here. He is an honorable man,” Bertman told ESPN. “I don’t believe he would lead anybody the wrong way.”

Basically says: If he goes to UM he’s a liar because he signed a contract with us, and said he wants to be here. But you’re not a liar, right Les? You have more honor than that.

This particular situation has been pretty entertaining to watch. Let’s see what happens next.

Some stuff

Sorry about the Paul Johnson screw up. My sources had him all but signed on the dotted line for SMU. I understand that although SMU officials knew he was considering other jobs, they really thought they had him. Sometimes there are surprises.

I’ve been saying for awhile that Mike Leach would be top candidate for UCLA. A few days ago there was an article saying he wouldn’t be among the finalists. I’m hearing the opposite. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Leach named the HC at for the Bruins. But we also know he initiated contact with Arkansas as well. He’s not a good fit for the SEC, in my opinion. The question is, why does he want out of Lubbock so bad? He makes good money. If he sticks around until 2010, he’ll be making about $2.15M/year. Not bad.

Arkansas is a mess. Lane Kiffin expresses interest, but can’t take it. Who’s next? More on that later.

We know that it appears the UH job is coming down to Jack Pardee and Kevin Sumlin, OU’s passing game/co-offensive coordinator. Sometimes teams like to reach back and make a connection to their past. Pardee had a couple of 9 wins seasons in Houston, and ended up ranked at the end of the year. But Pardee is almost 72 years old. He hasn’t been coaching for several years. I think it would be a disaster for UH to hire Pardee. I’m betting Pardee gets the job. I’m hearing that UH has concerns that Sumlin may not be quite ready for a HC job.

I’m hearing UH is looking at it like this: 1) take a chance on Sumlin and hope he’s ready, or 2) hire Pardee as sort of a temporary solution, and attempt to get on staff the person that UH would want to take over after 2-3 years. That might be Sumlin, though the chances of him going to UH in any capacity other than HC are basically zero.

But UH is no doubt aware that if Sumlin isn’t offered the HC job anywhere, that he will likely be A&M’s OC next season. So there’s this possible scenario – hire Pardee, Sumlin goes to A&M for 2-3 years, then make the move to bring in Sumlin (assuming he’s doing well at A&M) when Pardee “retires.” Pardee would be/has been told of these concerns and of UH’s thought process.

UH understands, of course, that they may not get Sumlin after that 2-3 years. So are they willing to go with Pardee, and hope a good candidate is available if Sumlin isn’t?

I’m not hearing anything solid either way, but my money is on Pardee.

*Edit – I said Sumlin would get it, and later said Pardee. I meant Pardee both times. I thought it would kind of be funny to say it would be a disaster to hire Pardee and then say right after that I thought they would do it. I just messed up and put Sumlin’s name. Sorry for the confusion.

Bowden, Leach

I told you yesterday that Bowden wouldn’t be at Arkansas. This was on ESPN today:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3140991

I’ll find out who has the inside track to that job.

Also, it looks like Leach may be the top candidate for UCLA, not just “one of the top candidates.”  We’ll see how serious UCLA is, because he’s making a lot more at Texas Tech than Dorrell was making at UCLA. My money says UCLA is pretty serious.

Tuberville not going to Arkansas

Tuberville isn’t going anywhere. This goes back to what happened in the A&M search as well. Auburn just isn’t going to let him out.  No one is going to pay $6M just to buy out Tuberville’s contract, and then pay him $3.5M/year.

So they interview 3 guys, including Tommy Bowden.  That has to be a let down for Arkansas folks.  Not that he’s a bad coach, but is he really a big step up from Nutt? Why get rid of a middle-of-the-pack SEC coach to hire a middle-of-the-pack ACC coach? Bowden has generally been good for 4 to 5 losses a year until this 3 loss season (but have you seen their schedule?)

But rest easy, Razorback fans, as it sounds like Bowden will not be roaming the sidelines in Fayetteville.  But don’t rest too easy. Have you seen the other 2 interviewees? Not much to get excited about.

Arkansas is having some trouble in their lastest coaching searches (you can go read up on their search for a basketball coach). Whether you like Texas A&M’s hire or not, you have to like the way the AD got it done. They came off looking like they got the only guy they wanted. It wasn’t entirely true, but most people weren’t aware of that. Once A&M knew they wouldn’t be able to make a deal for Tuberville, they told him they were going in a different direction. The implication – we’ve decided you aren’t the guy we want, and we’re going to go hire him now.

Arkansas needs to take some lessons.

Paul Johnson

Sounds like he’ll be the new coach at SMU.

Leach

Expect the Mike Leach talk to UCLA to heat up quickly. Both sides are very interested, but this isn’t something that will inevitably happen. I believe UCLA will make the salary jump required, but will Leach leave? He’s actually had a couple of opportunities and has stayed. A lot of people think Leach has always been itching to leave the South Plains. Actually, that’s not the case.

I do think UCLA is going to make it tough for Leach to stay. But Leach has surprised me before.

My tribute to Herbstreit

Way to go, Kirk. You may have seen him on ESPN this morning where he declared that Les Miles would be the coach at Michigan next year (much to the dismay of Wolverines everywhere).

And then a little later, Les Miles shows up and says he was wrong. Ooh, sorry Kirk.

In Kirk’s defense, it was an odd situation. Evidently, Miles had an offer from Michigan but just wasn’t ready to make a decision. However, it was widely believed he would take the offer. Hence Kirk’s announcement. Kirk relied on his sources telling him it was done, instead of it was likely. So LSU officials get word and put Miles on the spot.  “Coach, are you going to be with us next year?”  Miles: “Sure am.”  “Well, we need you to go out there and put these rumors to rest so they aren’t a distraction for the team.” What is he supposed to do. Here he is thinking he very well might want to stay, and they want him to make a statement. They essentially forced him to make a quick decision that he wasn’t going anywhere. But he still hedged. He said he is the coach of LSU, and he will be the coach of LSU. He didn’t actually say he would be there next year. But LSU got him to say enough that if he leaves, he comes off looking like he’s a liar, which is the corner they wanted him painted into. Miles didn’t come up with the idea to do that quick press conference, and that was obvious just watching it.

People expect and notice the games played and the posturing by coaches. Sometimes the same activities by athletic directors go unnoticed.  Remember, in this arena everyone is using the press to their advantage.

A&M staff

Sounds to me like A&M fans need will have to wait a little bit before they get new coordinators.

One, Sherman has a season to finish. Two, he now has Tim Cassidy back in Aggieland (a welcome sight for most Aggies).  Three, because of the rules regarding the number of assistant coaches a team can have, Sherman is in a bit of a difficult spot. The Aggies have a bowl coming up and must get ready for that with interim coach Gary Darnell, and they need the rest of the staff as well. It would make it tough to get rid of anyone prior to that.

That’s not to say we won’t start hearing some names prior to that, and I’m doing some more checking on that as well. Again, don’t look for Bob Davie on the A&M sideline next year.

I also talked to a some connected with Texas high school football. Don’t be surprised to see A&M get a commitment (or possible recommitment) from 1 or 2 big time defensive recruits after the defensive coordinator is named.

Pelini to Nebraska

This comes as a bit of a surprise because Nebraska had actually been looking in a different direction. Pelini was not their first choice initially. They had a couple of other names on the radar, like Turner Gill, before they decided to go with Pelini.  I’m hearing that Osborne felt it was necessary to get a defensive guy in, and to restore the blackshirts tradition.  He seems to think that’s where Nebraska needs to start their turnaround.  I think under different circumstances, Osborne would have gone with Gill or another candidate, but really felt like the fans were going to respond to a defensive guy. Also, there’s already goodwill around Pelini and the defense he built at Nebraska when he was there.